iPhone 1.0 -- biggest flop in tech history?

The first iPhone looks set to become the biggest flop in tech history. Why? Well, look at its features. 4-8GB hard drive? Good. iTunes compatible? Great. 3.5 inch screen? Very nice.
But hang on -- what is it that we mainly use mobiles for again...? Oh yes! Making calls! And sending texts!
And how does one do that on the iPhone? On its touchscreen? No thanks.
Think about it. No one-handed texting possible (look at the photos of it in operation here). Having to keep your glued to the screen to make sure that you've entered the right combination, because you can't feel it (experienced texters can look away for short periods, as can experienced typists).
How could Apple think that anyone will feel comfortable calling or texting on a touchscreen? It's a terrible -- and very unpopular -- interface for this kind of operation. It makes the iPhone a glorified PDA (that plays iTunes). And the only PDAs that are doing any decent business now are the ones with keyboards and keypads (Blackberry, Treo, iPaq).
I remember the first generation of touchscreen phones. One was a Mitsubishi. Technically, it was very adept. But it sucked to use. All touchscreens suck to use as phones or SMS machines.
Apparently, Apple's share price rose 3 per cent on news of the iPhone. Well, wall Street, you can't be more wrong.
Without a keyboard, this will be a titanic flop.

Comments

[Adam]

I agree - my biggest concern is the lack of tactile buttons when texting (not a big concern for number dialing, really).

I'll have to try one out for myself but I'm hoping the size of the screen will make the process as painless as possible (compared to my DS, which is a chore to type on due to the tiny keys given on screen).

Maybe the question is, why would you need to look away while texting anyway? I know it's nice to be able to do it, but it's not like you will suffer in any way by having to look at what you're doing? And will you not become acquainted with the position of the letters anyway, even though you can't feel yourself pressing them?

[Simon]

Hmmm, I don't fully agree. Apples UI team are second to none. I doubt the decision was made lightly. I would reserve judgement until I test one out.

[PaulSweeney]

maybe a "soft ipod" on the phone would be killer app? i.e. it looks like ipod, works like an ipod, but with touchscreen? Given the way the Wii has worked out, maybe more radical reconception of interface was the way to go.

[Dave G]

Its a pity we'll have to wait until the end of the year to find out how your predictions panned out. I'm betting you own a Zune and go around saying stuff like "yeah Macs are good for graphics but......"
Good luck with Vista/OSX 10.1.0

[Cian]

"touchscreens suck"... if Apple are to be believed they will, apparently, use all new touch-screens - with all new patents along with that.

[Adrian]

No, Dave, we don't have Zunes in Europe. Enjoy your new text-free 'cellphone'.

[Frank]

I think you might be wrong with this prediction. Texting is a relatively recent arrival , it was easily learnt and can just as easily be unlearnt. We make more use of touch screens than we think, bank machines etc. I think touch screens are the future for mobile devices. Qwerty on screen keyboards are not perfect though and may evolve into some other text imputing method .

[eoin]

this kind of stufff was debunked by roughlydrafted.com, before it was even written.

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM.Tech.Q1.07/4DD0941D-9097-4FAE-A3BB-29DA5CA07199.html

( although you are obviously more into the IT NEEDS A REAL KEYBOARD fanaticism).

In any cae are you prepared to take a bet on the iPhone not selling 10 million units by end 2008?

"Qwerty on screen keyboards are not perfect though and may evolve into some other text imputing method ."

Most users text using a numeric keyboard, which is a good deal harder than qwerty, touchscreen, or no.

[Annoyed]

This is the single craziest article I have ever read.

The iPhone has its flaws, sure. Price. Limited Memory. I would have given you those. Instead, though, you're predicting a flop because of how hard it is to type on when you have yet to even hold one.

Forget the fact that the qwerty layout is amazingly easier than anything using a numeric keypad. Forget that the times when you aren't texting that keyboard on a smartphone is dead weight. Forget that the software on the iPhone makes organizing the messages easier with multiple parties. The problem is that it has a luscious touchscreen that will be too hard to figure out. Are your fingers shaped like turnips? How did you even type the article.

Call it a flop if you want, but make an effort at thinking up some real reasons. Talk to someone who has tried to reply SMS and its taken them a half-hour to type "See you there". In writing this you have crafted the single worst opinion regarding the iPhone I have yet read.

Congratulations.

[PaulSweeney]

It is completely legitimate to think that the sms / typing issue might be a product killer. In marketing they have a thing called conjoint analysis and it basically ranks features and gets you to trade off some features against other features in the hope of getting the best mix. I am sure apple did this for their target market. I guess it might become more evident what these trade offs were if we had some kind of idea as to who the intended target audience were. For some business users (European for one) as well as for kids, (European), texting ease of use is essential. I personally do not like my Nokia N70 because the buttons make it hard to text (big fingers!). So perhaps the key board has had its day, but texting hasn't. Not by a long shot.

[Bernie Goldbach]

I wonder how many of those reading this post actually send or receive text messages more than five times a day. If you're using your phone for quiet text, you're doing more than connecting. In my part of the world (western Europe), you're paying for parking, public transport or voting for people on reality TV. I always thought text messaging gave mobile phones their "handy" nickname in Germany. Changing the way you text is a big deal, if you expect to maintain the proven functionality.

[eoin]

"Changing the way you text is a big deal, if you expect to maintain the proven functionality."

Not so much a big deal if it is better. As has been pointed out a numeric keyboard is what most people use to text, and the interface - not designed for texting - sucks. On my motorola to text the word "is" I need to type 4447777* ( * is the space), and make sure I dont pause in the wrong place least i get hgs, or irq, or any number of combinations. On the iphone, type i, then autocomplete ( the spacebar). And that gets better for larger words where the autocomplete will get the options earlier, for instance Que... would probably autocomplete to question ( and may just Qu.. would). On a standard numeric keypad that would be 7788337777644466666.

this is why there is the shorthand text-speak.

[Adrian]

Sorry for not replying earlier -- away this week.

Know why touchscreen smartphones and PDAs have a stylus? Because no-one over the age of 3 has fingers small enough to use the touchscreen Qwerty keyboard without making a complete pig's ear of it. Of course Apple has software to deal with spelling cock-ups -- it'll be impossible not make loads!

I have to say, Annoyed, that the only people who take half an hour to text 'see you there' are over 80. Perhaps you don't like texting? Fair enough. But most people love it. (No matter what that says about us.)

Lastly, I've been a Mac user all my life. But trying to compare the iPhone to seismic innovations like mouse-centric operating system or iTunes or the iPod is just simply wrong.

[Adrian]

Sorry Eoin, didn't come to your point.

A bet? I'm more than confident to bet that the iPhone won't get anywhere remotely near 1 per cent of the European handset sales market (which is what Jobs's 10 million is based on, not the other way around) in 2008.

€50 sound okay?

I'll make a side-bet, too.

Another €50 says they won't even get 0.5 per cent of the European handset market.

Sound good?

[daniel]

Texting is big in western-europe. More people text than speak on the phone..

But, tactile feedback is not always necessary. My SE K750 has crap tactile feedback, still i know where the keys are and can text while not looking..

[Adam]

True Adrian, as I said above trying to type (even with a stylus) on my DS is a pain in the arse, but I'm willing to give the iPhone's keyboard a chance as it is possible to make the keys easier to touch by hand... the fact that they buttons enlarge as your finger approaches them is a nice idea that could aid this.

It's a matter of wait and see IMO, and if they allow you to turn the phone to landscape for typing, all the better.

And again on tacticle texting, my current phone (an N80) is well set up to facilitate touch-typing, but my last phone (an SE t910 or something) wasn't - I could still do it without a problem though...

[neonesc]

"But hang on -- what is it that we mainly use mobiles for again...? Oh yes! Making calls! And sending texts!"

Possibly this is because any device that attempted anything more has been incredibly clumsy?

Apples intention is much broader than changing the way we make calls and text. They see the touchscreen as the most efficient way to unlock the vast potential of a mobile device beyond voice and text. Granted Adrian this is something your generation might not see the benefit of but I for one am excited about the communicative potential of this mobile device (especially iChat integration).

Apple hopes to redefine what a mobile phone can do, to be more accurate I feel they want to create something new, more than the some of it's parts – I guess like I said, a mobile device not a mobile phone. Whether or not they will achieve this remains to be seen. To say it will live or die by its ability to allow teenagers to text 100 words a minute with one hand is naive.

Jobs emphasised numerous times how well the touch screen worked and the product will live or die by this claim and this alone.

Obviously they feel their new touchscreen is something special. I too have my doubts but I do know that current typepad interfaces feel clumsy and ultimately are too restrictive. So Adrian to have such a vociferous opinion about something you have not used is surprising. But I forgot, you did once use a touch screen Mitsubishi device in the 90's.

Personally I feel another agenda here, apart from Apple bashing – perhaps just trying to spice up the blog with dogma Adrian? Tut tut.

[Bill]

"Without a keyboard, this will be a titanic flop"

Oh, really? Do you think?

This kind of idiotic statement is up there with "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." - Ken Olson, president, chairman of Digital Equipment, 1977

You can keep your "traditional" keyboards retro boy, I'm for anything that makes texting easier.

[neuegirl]

skeptics beware -- apple will make you sound like a fool if you try and doubt their intelligence again. i got my iphone yesterday - and i wasn't expecting much more than a glorified ipod -- what i got was a brilliant piece of technology and the first of a new generation of phone. yesterday was historical - and if you don't believe it - it is only because you haven't had the luxury of experiencing it.

[aware]

well here it is nearly October and they have sold only a bit over a million. yeah "eoin" your just a few million short there buddy. enjoy the "bought it cause it's apple, released outdated, overpriced consumer garbage" sheeple.

haha luxury of experiencing it!!! ahaha that's so overboard rich in going to choke!! it's great how overstated that is!!! we believe you neugirl, we really do, for real!!! that's why your posting about it and not "experiencing the luxury" ahahaha wow unreal...go find a hobby.

[Bernie Goldbach]

Apple might have beaten Adrian's estimates with the successful release of the 3G iPhone. Last quarter, Apple sold 6.9m iPhones, making the 10m end-of-2008 figure laid down by Adrian easily achievable.