iPhone: 0.3 per cent global share

That's a good deal less than the 1 per cent Steve Jobs predicted this time last year. (In fairness, the gadget only launched in the three big European markets last Autumn.) Jobs said at MacWorld yesterday that the iPhone sold four million units last year, out of a total global market of roughly 1.2 billion units. It still has some way to catch up on Nokia's high end devices, too, with the iPhone trailing Nokia's N-Series and E-Series phones in sales by at least 13 to 1 in markets where they're competing against each other (notably the US).

Comments

[eoin]

Jobs said 1% at the end of 2008.

[Arthur Mathews]

This comment needs to be set in its proper context. Apple have sold 4 million iPhones since June and the figures don't include the Christmas period. Even without December sales figures, they now hold 20% of the smartphone market second only to RIM. Not bad work.
There is only 1 model of iPhone- don't make the mistake of comparing the iPhone to Nokia- it needs to be be compared to Nokia's smartphone business as this is the only market the iPhone competes in. There is no Nokia 6210 etc equivalent fro Apple.
Apple's publicly stated target was 10m by the end of 2008, and with 4m sold by Nov 07, they are well on target.

[Adrian]

And don't make the mistake of comparing a consumer phone's (the iPhone) sales to those of a business phone (smartphones, as we currently understand them) -- consumer models always sell a lot more than clunky business ones. That 20 per cent figure is probably out of context, therefore. (And it's a bit of a cheat for Jobs to try and compare them to make the iPhone's sales look good.)

In other news, in Britain the iPhone failed to sell even the conservative figure that O2 had set (operators always set conservative figures so that they can celebrate the expected figure as being a triumph) of 200,000. They sold 190,000 (but were probably expecting/hoping for 250,000). Story is on the Register, which took it from the FT.

[Adam]

While iPhone is clearly way behind its target (which was 1% of the market after 1 year of sales - in other words 1% by June 2008) I don't think that fact should deflect from its performance.

For a single device to take such a portion of the market, having been on sale for around half a year in one market and only a few months in 3 others, is a very respectable performance.

I'm not sure how it compares to other individual devices but I'd imagine it's holdin up well against the competition.

To be honest, comparing it to a range of phones like the Nokia N or E-Series is as disingenuous as comparing it to business phones only.

(And no, I don't have one nor am I a mac fanboy - the only Apple product I've ever purchased was a 30GB iPod about 2-3 years ago).

[Adrian]

Well, an N-series phone is generally accepted as being as direct a competitor to the iPhone as is possible in the market.(Perhaps less so with the E-series.)

It's important to note that in Britain, O2 is now having to give away loads more minutes and texts for the same price (up to three times as much) to boost its flagging iPhone sales. It also had to cut its higher monthly tariff price. Money talks. This isn't the action of an operator with demand exceeding supply.

Finally, on the Steve Jobs 1% aspiration, the collapse of a deal with China Mobile makes this look more unlikely than ever.

[Adam]

My point about it being disingenuous is that you're comparing a range of phones to a single device.

If you're comparing a single N-series phone, say the N95, to the iPhone then that's fair enough, provided it's over the same amount of time too and not just based on each respective device's lifetime sales.

I agree that the 1% target isn't likely to happen - it seemed ambitious from day 1 for a device that cost a premium and was tied to relatively long contracts. I'd argue it would have struggled under these conditions even if it had a simultaneous worldwide launch back in June 07.

Likewise I agree that the device hasn't had the reaction it would have liked (and seemingly expected) in the UK; I'd imagine the same will happen in Ireland albeit to a lesser extent as we're a country used to paying extra for our mobiles, at least compared to the UK.

All things considered I do think it's selling well, even if it isn't as well as Jobs arrogantly predicted.

[Adam]

A 16GB model is now available, which is nice to see... although it does cost more.

I'd feel pretty sore if I had bought an 8GB model for the same price at launch, though, and assuming 3G is coming down the line early adopters will get screwed over even more.

[Brian Farley]

Adrian keeps making mistakes on figures.

1/ Apple said it hoped to sell 10 million iPhones by end of 2008. That's 10 million between June 07 and Dec 08.

2/ Apple did NOT say 10 million in 12 months.

3/ if you want the quote, see what was announced by Steve Jobs in Jan 07 at the iPhone launch:
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1576854-5,00.html

2/ Apple already had 28% of the smartphone market by the end of 2007. This is in a year when the iPhone was only on sale for 6 months. This is also a global figure, and the iPhone so far is only available in a few countries.

Please check your facts. They are freely available:

[Adrian]

Brian,

No, he clearly said 1 per cent market share in 2008 -- check his slides as he was making his presentation (about three quarters down the page here -- http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/09/live-from-macworld-2007-steve-jobs-keynote/)

Secondly, the iPhone is not a smartphone in the sense that we understand them (Blackberry, Palm Treo, Nokia E61 etc). It's a luxury consumer mobile. Trying to compare it to business phones like the Blackberry (which it doesn't even beat) is simply a cheap way of getting a headline.

[Adam]

Wouldn't it be fair to argue that selling 10m phones by December 31st 2008 would count as selling 10m phones in 2008?

It's a pretty vague thing to say you'd sell a certain number of units at some point in a 12 month period, but as a result he clearly has the leeway to say his target was 10m by Q4 2008.

[Adrian]

Not really, Adam.

Then Nokia could say "we sold 290 million phones by December 31st 2008. Sure, that includes half of 2007, too, but stop nit-picking."

It's a small but fundamental point that somehow seems to have gotten lost with Mac fanboys.

[Brian Farley]

Adrian is talking nonsense when he says tat the iPhone is not a "smartphone". He needs to differentiate between personal views and the facts. He may not like the iPhone, but it is certainly a smartphone device.

In Q4 2007, Apple took 3rd place in this market worldwide, despite its limited geographical release, and holds more share than all Windows mobile phones combined:
http://www.canalys.com/pr/2008/r2008021.htm

Lets keep facts in these discussions as consumers get misled with mixing in personal comment.

[Adam]

My mistake Adrian - you're right.

I just got muddled with the figures and what exactly they were looking for 1% of.

For what it's worth I don't expect them to have 1% of the market even if you look at the calender year as June - May.

Today's rumours of an Irish launch and an upcoming Austrian launch won't do much to change my opinion on that.